AI-augmented decision-making
Decision support that combines models, data and AI — and data-driven decision-making that goes beyond more data to causal understanding.
Key work
Stefan N. Grösser
Professor of Decision Sciences and Policy, Bern University of Applied Sciences (BFH)
School of Engineering and Computer Science · Research Group MISE
How can we make better decisions when systems become increasingly complex?
I research how simulation, artificial intelligence and systems thinking can improve decision-making in complex socio-technical systems — and bring these methods into practice through applied projects.
System DynamicsAI & Decision SupportDigital TwinsSustainability
Latest
What 58 comments taught me about AI and graduate jobs
A synthesis of the discussion on Swiss graduate employment figures: what was confirmed, what was added, where objections hit — and why the data base is thinner than the debate suggests.
Unemployment among economics graduates has more than doubled
New Swiss Federal Statistical Office figures: from 3.5 to 8.5 percent within two graduating cohorts. Why study programmes should disclose labour-market outcomes before enrolment.
AI hardly fires anyone. It just stops hiring.
On the Stanford study by Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen — and what universities must do when the first two years on the job disappear as a learning space.
“Can’t do anything but AI.” Are we discussing the right problem?
Why banning AI or changing exams treats symptoms — and why learners need an internal quality regulator to use generative AI as a tutor rather than a shortcut.
Research
Six connected areas — all centred on how people and organisations decide in systems with feedback, delays and uncertainty.
System dynamics & simulation
Modelling feedback-rich systems, simulation-based policy analysis, model validation and the comparison of mental models.
Key work
Digital twins
Digital twins for industry, energy and health, virtual sensors that derive unmeasured states from existing data, and digital product passports.
Key work
Strategic management & business engineering
Business model analysis with computational models, strategy tools and their implementation, and model-based management.
Key work
Circular economy & sustainability
Circular and product-service-system business models, data platforms and reuse readiness in the European solar industry; resilient supply chains and energy policy.
Key work
- Circular Economy Policies and Business Models in the EU Renewable Energy Sector: The Case of Solar Photovoltaic Industry (2026)
- Designing a digital platform to foster data-enhanced circular practices in the European solar industry (2023)
- Advancing Circular Strategies in Photovoltaics: Assessing Reuse Readiness Across Technical, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions in a Case Study (2026)
Generative AI, higher education & professional judgement
Learning analytics, generative AI in higher education and how learners build the internal quality judgement needed to use AI well.
Key work
Research in action
Selected lines of applied work — the problem, the approach and what it is good for.
Virtual sensors for digital twins
- Problem
- Every additional physical sensor costs money to install, maintain and calibrate — and some relevant states cannot be measured directly.
- Approach
- Software-based models derive unmeasured states from existing data. In a photovoltaic case, a virtual sensor estimates module soiling from weather data, dust load, time since the last cleaning and performance data.
- Value
- Cleaning neither too early (cost, water, diesel) nor too late (energy losses); better use of existing data — provided the models are validated continuously.
- Outputs
Digital product passports
- Problem
- Product data must remain usable over long product lifetimes and across many actors in the value chain.
- Approach
- A schema-governed, federated architecture for long-lived digital product passports, and a coffee traceability demonstrator based on digital product passport principles.
- Value
- Traceable, interoperable product information as a basis for circular business models.
- Outputs
Human health digital twin
- Problem
- Cardiovascular risk depends on interacting factors that develop over time.
- Approach
- A simulation model of cardiovascular risk combined with an interactive dashboard.
- Value
- Makes risk dynamics and the effect of interventions tangible for decision-making.
- Outputs
Circular photovoltaics (EU Horizon RETRIEVE)
- Problem
- End-of-life PV panels become a growing waste stream, while circular business models in the solar industry remain rare.
- Approach
- Reintegration of PV waste into manufacturing as high-value products (RETRIEVE, since 2023), combined with research on product-service systems, data platforms and reuse readiness.
- Value
- Evidence and tools for policy makers and companies to close material loops in the European solar sector.
- Outputs
- Advancing Circular Strategies in Photovoltaics: Assessing Reuse Readiness Across Technical, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions in a Case Study (2026)
- Toward a Platform-Driven Business Model to Enhance Circular Economy Practices: Insights From the European Photovoltaic Industry (2026)
- Product-service-system business models in the photovoltaic industry – A comprehensive analysis (2025)
Further projects
- OngoingLearning Analytics at BFH · since 2025
Develops learning analytics further at BFH; Stefan Grösser leads the project.
Funding: BFH research grant
Partners: BFH School of Health Professions; School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences HAFL - OngoingCOST Action TrANsMIT · since 2024
Member of the Management Committee of a pan-European network on the techno-economic analysis of the integrated CO2 capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) value chain.
Funding: COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)
Partners: Pan-European network, role: Management Committee member - CompletedWING chatbot as study advisor
An LLM-based chatbot that answers prospective students’ questions on the Industrial Engineering programme — content, deadlines, modules and career paths — and relieves study advisors.
Funding: BFH
Publications
Eight key publications. The complete list of all journal articles, books, chapters, conference papers and reports has its own page with filters and search.
Key publications
- Journal articlesMental models of dynamic systems: taking stock and looking aheadS. N. Grösser, M SchaffernichtSystem Dynamics Review 28(1), 46–68 · 2012DOI 10.1002/sdr.476
- Journal articlesContributions to model validation: hierarchy, process, and cessationS. N. Grösser, M SchwaningerSystem Dynamics Review 28(2), 157–181 · 2012DOI 10.1002/sdr.1466
- Journal articlesBusiness model analysis using computational modeling: a strategy tool for exploration and decision-makingS. N. Grösser, N JovyJournal of Management Control 27(1), 61–88 · 2016DOI 10.1007/s00187-015-0222-1
- Journal articlesDesigning a digital platform to foster data-enhanced circular practices in the European solar industryÄ Boukhatmi, R Nyffenegger, S. N. GrösserJournal of Cleaner Production 418, 137992 · 2023DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137992
- Journal articlesCircular Economy Policies and Business Models in the EU Renewable Energy Sector: The Case of Solar Photovoltaic IndustryR Nyffenegger, B Baldassarre, N Bocken, S. N. GrösserBusiness Strategy and the Environment 35, 593–614 · 2026DOI 10.1002/bse.70188
- Book chaptersDeveloping a Human Health Digital Twin for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: Simulation Model and DashboardS. N. Grösser, M HänniComputer Aided Systems Theory – EUROCAST 2024, LNCS, 298–310 · 2025DOI 10.1007/978-3-031-82957-4_25
- Journal articlesUse of Generative Artificial Intelligence tools in higher education environmentsD Seco, S. N. Grösser, AM PedrosaMultidisciplinary Journal for Education, Social and Technological Sciences 12, 156–175 · 2025DOI 10.4995/muse.2025.23623
- Journal articlesSchema-governed federation for long-lived digital product passportsR Burkhalter, S. N. GrösserInformation Systems 142, 102776 · 2026DOI 10.1016/j.is.2026.102776
By topic: System dynamics & simulationDigital twins & dataAI & learning analyticsCircular economy & sustainabilityStrategy & managementHealth & supply chainsEducation
Teaching
I teach systems analysis, data-driven decision-making and the professional use of AI in engineering and management programmes at BFH.
- Systems Analysis and Consulting for SustainabilityMSc Circular Innovation and Sustainability
- Data-Driven Decision Making and Management Control
- This is the LLM-Way — large language models in practice
- Machine learning, statistics and forecasting
- Process automation
- Business Engineering profileMSc in Engineering (MSE)
Learning innovation
Learning analytics to strengthen self-study, a Moodle sandbox (SIMLEARN) for validating predictive models, an LLM-based study advisor, and building learners’ internal quality judgement for the use of generative AI.
About
I am Professor of Decision Sciences and Policy at Bern University of Applied Sciences (BFH), School of Engineering and Computer Science, where I lead the research group Management Science, Innovation, Sustainability and Entrepreneurship (MISE) and direct the “Business Engineering” profile of the MSc in Engineering (MSE). I work at the intersection of decision-making, simulation, artificial intelligence, systems thinking and digital twins.
My research and applied projects focus on understanding complex systems and developing decision-support approaches that combine models, data and AI. More data does not automatically lead to better decisions. Decision quality also depends on understanding causal structures, feedback, uncertainty and the consequences of alternative actions. I am particularly interested in approaches that bridge research and practice and help improve real-world decisions in industry, management, sustainability and education.
Previously, I was Professor of Strategic Management and Organization at BFH Business School (2011–2017) and Dean of Industrial Engineering and Management Science (2016–2025). I hold a doctorate (Dr. oec. HSG) from the University of St. Gallen, an MPhil in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen and a Diplom in Industrial Engineering from the University of Stuttgart, and was a visiting scholar at MIT Sloan School of Management.
Roles & distinctions
- Research Group LeaderMISE – Management Science, Innovation, Sustainability and Entrepreneurship, BFH · since 2017
- Profile Director “Business Engineering”MSc in Engineering (MSE), BFH · since 2016
- Management CommitteeCOST Action TrANsMIT (CCUS value chains) · since 2024
- Founder & Managing PartnerComplexity Engineering · since 2020
- Associate EditorSystem Dynamics Review · 2018–2022
- Visiting ProfessorUniversity of Bergen · 2016–2021
- Gert-von-Kortzfleisch AwardGerman Society for System Dynamics · 2017
- Certified FacilitatorLEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® (StrategicPlay®)
2'189citations
22h-index
39i10-index
Google Scholar, as of 2026-10-12
Working with me
I am open to collaborations where better models lead to better decisions.
Companies & public organisations
Applied research projects (e.g. Innosuisse), simulation and decision-support studies, digital twin prototypes, and strategy workshops — including LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY®.
Research institutions
Joint proposals (e.g. Horizon Europe, SNSF), co-authored research and networks on system dynamics, digital twins and circular economy.
Doctoral researchers
Joint research on system dynamics, digital twins and AI-supported decision-making in cooperation with partner universities.
Contact
For research collaborations, applied projects and talks, please get in touch by e-mail.